Arrested and stripped of degree: Twin moves to bar Istanbul mayor from ballot suggests Turkey’s Erdogan is really worried this time

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu speaks to the press on Oct. 30, 2024. Yasin Akgul/AFP via Getty

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu had expected to become Turkey’s opposition presidential nominee on March 23, 2025; instead, he lost his freedom and college degree.

On March 18, the politician – seen as a powerful rival to long-ruling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – saw his bachelor’s degree revoked by Istanbul University. A day later, Imamoglu was arrested along with staff members and a district mayor of Istanbul.

As an expert on Turkish politics, I believe the timing of these two measures suggest that Erdogan is really worried that Imamoglu poses a serious threat to his 22-year-long rule.

The 100-plus people rounded up in the police sweep in Istanbul were all from Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, or RPP, which was established by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The charges against them include corruption, forming a criminal organization and aiding the PKK, a Kurdish group designated by Turkey as a terrorist group, through collaboration with the pro-Kurdish political party.

What makes that accusation more perplexing is that it comes at a time when the government is promoting Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the PKK, as a peacemaker who will dissolve the organization. The about-face on Ocalan, who for the past 26 years has been in a Turkish prison, is seen by political observers as an effort by Erdogan to court Kurdish support for a constitutional amendment that would remove the presidential term limit that otherwise prevents him from running again.

President for life?

The Turkish Constitution limits presidents to two five-year terms. Erdogan has already been elected three times, but justified his third run by arguing that his first term took place before the 2017 constitutional amendments that established the current system. If the term limit is lifted, he could be elected a fourth time – and potentially beyond.

Is it time for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to leave the stage?
Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The main obstacle to Erdogan’s plans is Imamoglu, who appears to be significantly more popular than the long-serving president.

The revocation of Imamoglu’s 31-year-old degree was widely seen as an attempt to disqualify him from the presidential election and an excuse to cancel the RPP primary on March 23. According to Turkey’s Constitution, a presidential candidate must be a university graduate.

The charges appear to have been brought against Imamoglu with an even more ambitious goal in mind: to bar him from holding any public office, including the mayorship. This would yield a triple victory for Erdogan – he would be able to reclaim Istanbul’s mayoralty by appointing a hand-picked civil servant, push through constitutional changes by intimidating parliamentarians, and eliminate his strongest rival from any future presidential race.

The attempted power grab and term extensions could shift Turkey’s political system from a flawed democracy to an “elected dictatorship” akin to Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

That’s why RPP leader Ozgur Ozel described the measures against Imamoglu as “a coup d’état against the people’s right to elect their leader.”

No more free elections?

Erdogan is a master of electioneering in terms of promoting populist policies, and manipulating the media and electoral practices to work against opposition parties.

Facing weak rivals, whether by chance or through his manipulations, has been key to Erdogan’s electoral success over the past two decades. Under the leadership of its former leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition RPP has suffered successive defeats in presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections against Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party.

Erdogan first faced a serious challenge to this electoral formula in the 2023 presidential election, when polls showed that Imamoglu, unlike Kilicdaroglu, was more popular than Erdogan.

In an apparent bid by Erdogan to neutralize the threat five months before the election, a court sentenced Imamoglu to 2½ years in prison for insulting public officials after he called Turkey’s Supreme Election Council “fools.” The ruling is now under appeal; if upheld, it would also bar him from holding public office.

Rather than backing Imamoglu, Kilicdaroglu insisted on running against Erdogan himself in 2023. This was a departure from the previous two presidential elections, in which the RPP leader had backed other candidates. Regardless, Kilicdaroglu lost.

After defeat, Kilicdaroglu was removed from RPP leadership, and the new party head backs Imamoglu to run as a presidential candidate. Now, Imamoglu is running with a popularity that surpasses Erdogan’s, making him the most formidable opposition candidate in two decades.

Erdogan’s declining popularity

During his long rule, Erdogan has pursued a two-part strategy to maintain his grip on power: win elections to claim legitimacy while simultaneously consolidate control through authoritarian means, such as imprisoning journalists and branding opposition figures as “terrorists.”

However, Turkey’s 2024 municipal elections marked a shift in domestic politics. For the first time since 2002, Erdogan’s JDP fell to second place, while the opposition RPP emerged as the leading party by vote share, securing major victories in both Istanbul – where Imamoglu was reelected – and Ankara, Turkey’s capital, where RPP’s Mansur Yavas won another term.

A major factor in the declining popularity of Erdogan’s party – and the leader personally – is the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Since 2022, Turkey’s annual inflation rate has hovered around 50%, eroding purchasing power and triggering a major brain drain as skilled Turkish citizens seek better opportunities elsewhere.

The crisis is widely blamed on Erdogan’s economic policies, particularly his insistence on lowering interest rates to combat inflation – contradicting conventional economic wisdom.

Despite a recent policy reversal, Turkey’s currency continues to depreciate. Five years ago, one U.S. dollar was worth 5 Turkish lira; today, it has surged to 40 lira.

Why is Imamoglu targeted?

Incarceration is not an unheard-of tactic in Turkey to silence opposition figures. Selahattin Demirtas, the former leader of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, has been behind bars for over eight years on terrorism charges; and Umit Ozdag, the leader of the far-right Victory Party, has been in prison for two months for insulting Erdogan and inciting hatred.

Both men were irritants to Erdogan and could stir up trouble, but neither was a real threat to Erdogan’s power.

What makes Imamoglu unique is that he possesses broad appeal across different voter blocs. He can attract the Kurdish vote while maintaining strong ties with nationalist politicians with his charisma and public speaking.

Supporters of Ekrem Imamoglu wave a poster flag of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk as they demonstrate on March 19, 2025.
Kemal Aslan/AFP via Getty Images

More importantly, he can appeal to both secularist and Islamic voters. He attracts support from a strain of Turkish society that adheres to the secular vision laid out by Ataturk. But at the same time, he is able to make overtures to religious voters, such as by publicly reciting verses of the Quran.

This ability to unite diverse constituencies helped Imamoglu defeat Erdogan’s party in Istanbul twice in 2019 – after the first defeat, Erdogan refused to accept the result and the Supreme Election Council annulled the election.

Imamoglu’s reelection as mayor in 2024 solidified his reputation as the leading politician who could defeat Erdogan at the ballot box.

The latest arrest of the popular politician has sparked protests in multiple cities, a rare occurrence in Turkey over the past decade. It also coincided with a 7% drop in the Turkish stock market, as investors seemingly saw it as a signal of political instability.

But as events over recent days have shown, popular support alone may not be enough for Imamoglu to reach the presidency – he also must face down judicial and other efforts to keep him off the ballot.

Ahmet T. Kuru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.